Beauty’s $590 Billion Future: New McKinsey Report Outlines the Roadmap to 2030
The future of beauty is here—and it’s a $590 billion shift toward authentic self-care, smarter science, and the ultimate search for 'inner and outer' longevity.
The global beauty industry is entering a sophisticated new era of "hyperlocalization" and "true value," according to the second edition of The State of Fashion: Beauty report, issued by McKinsey & Company. Based on an extensive study of 15,000 consumers across 13 markets and interviews with over 100 industry executives, the research projects the core beauty market—skin care, cosmetics, hair care, and fragrance—will reach $590 billion by 2030.
While the market remains a "darling" of the consumer sector, the report highlights a strategic shift from inflationary-driven growth to a more balanced mix of volume and price, with a steady 5% annual growth rate projected through the end of the decade.
The Rise of the "Total Self" and Men’s Participation
The report identifies a massive secondary market worth $820 billion beyond the "core four" segments. This includes rapid expansion into aesthetic injectables, beauty supplements, and sun care. Notably, men’s participation in the category has accelerated twofold, fueling a surge in the men’s grooming and shaving sectors.
Key Industry-Shaping Dynamics for 2025 and Beyond
Fragmentation Over Demographics: Brands are moving away from traditional age or ethnicity-based marketing. Growth now lies in "attitudinal segmentation," targeting specific consumer values such as science-backed efficacy or organic ingredients.
The Search for True Value: High inflation has led to the rise of "masstige" brands. Nearly half of global consumers now "mix and match," pairing luxury splurges with high-quality mass-market products.
Beyond the Founder: The era of the celebrity founder is evolving. Research shows that while a famous face helps a launch, "brand loyalty" is driven by product performance and emotional attachment, not the founder’s status.
Marketing’s Balancing Act: With social media acquisition costs skyrocketing, physical retail has re-emerged as the #1 source of beauty inspiration. Furthermore, consumers in the West remain skeptical of Generative AI in marketing, while 83% of Chinese consumers embrace AI-driven recommendations.
Channels at a Crossroads: E-commerce is expected to hit 30% penetration by 2030. However, traditional retailers like grocers and discounters are aggressively expanding their beauty aisles, creating a more competitive "promiscuous" shopping environment.
Regional Outlooks
North America: 51% of executives plan to prioritize expansion here, despite a tightening of "entry-prestige" spending.
India & Middle East: 70% of executives anticipate very high growth in these regions.
China: Growth is expected to stabilize at industry averages rather than pre-pandemic double digits, with a rising preference for domestic brands in cosmetics.
Latin America: Projected 7% growth, with Brazil leading the way in "live commerce" and trade-up trends.
The Path Forward
Despite global volatility, the industry outlook remains bullish. Success in 2026 and beyond will require brands to be radically dynamic, reallocating resources to high-growth categories like fragrance layering and sun care innovation while maintaining a clear, differentiated value proposition.
About the Report: The State of Fashion: Beauty is an annual comprehensive analysis of the global beauty landscape, combining McKinsey’s proprietary market models with deep-dive consumer and executive surveys across 13 major global markets.